Tech Predictions for 2024
Now that the pandemic is in the rear view mirror, what kind of year are we heading into? Predicting is actually kind of fun, so let’s get our Nostradamus on and come up with some prognosticating!
By Moses Ma
Now that the pandemic is in the rear view mirror, what kind of year are we heading into? Predicting is actually kind of fun, so let’s get our Nostradamus on and come up with some prognostications for both technology and societal trends. Just remember what the physicist Niels Bohr said: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." Also, these are meant to stimulate your superthinking skills, so you are encouraged to add to or disagree with them… in the comments!
Let’s start with some baseline economics. A year ago, the predictions were nearly unanimous: a recession was coming. But President Biden's administration did a great job of steering between the Scylla and Charybdis of inflation and recession... to pull off what looks like a "soft landing" for the economy. More than three-fourths of economists — 76% of those surveyed in December — said they believe the chances of a recession in the next 12 months is 50% or less, according to the National Association for Business Economics. Plus, the Fed telegraphed that rate hikes are ending, and financial markets expect rate cuts in 2024, which will meaningfully reduce the cost of financing things like homes and cars, and should get things pumping again.
So let’s use this as the starting place: with a little luck, 2024 will not suck.
Let’s start with the obvious predictions
The general theme for 2024 is “the Empire Strikes Back.” Upstarts like OpenAI may have grabbed center stage in 2023, but the Powers That Be will resurge with quite a bit of youthful vigor. Consider for example, the fact that Ford’s F-150 Lightning outsold Tesla’s Cybertruck… in 2023, it’s like 25k F-150 Lightnings compared to less than 100 Cybertrucks.
Google Catches Up with OpenAI
Moving into 2024, Google will catch up with OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize GPT's lead. One factor that nobody talks about is that Google has a bigger war chest than OpenAI. Remember that it costs more money to produce a better and more complete answer… so Google Gemini will put pressure on OpenAI by outspending them, while OpenAI is trying to figure out how to cut costs and actually make a profit without an ad engine. Every time OpenAI has to go back to go back to the Microsoft well for more money, it will need to dilute its stock.
And it isn’t just Google, this first AI war will be like WW3… Amazon, Grok, Anthropic, Baidu, Nvidia, Meta and others are all ante’ing up to get into this melee and they all know it’s going to be a war of attrition. And Apple is sitting back and waiting to see how to best enter and capture the market after everyone has beaten each other up, with their Ajax foundation model.
AI will f**k with Politics
This is an easy one. There are a lot of elections happening this year, and none of them look like they’re going to go smoothly. It doesn’t help that one particular candidate is likely going to be a convicted felon seeking to overthrow democracy in America, with active measures by a number of dictators supporting him. That candidate has “strong and powerful” RF squad that is already starting to use AI to clone the opponents voice, create fake videos, and churn out bogus narratives to undermine the normal processes of democracy. The flip side of this deluge of AI propaganda is that any candidate will be able to deny incriminating evidence simply by labeling everything from the opposing party — or the DOJ — as AI fakes.
So what’s the tech implication of this? I believe that humanity will respond by developing new ways to trust news and videos. I predict the emergence of “trustable cameras” with decentralized identifiers, used by photojournalists to provide provenance for digital photographs and interviews. Also, this will likely lead to the adoption of “no render lists” to fight AI-powered propaganda and harassment – so anyone from Presidential candidates to celebrities worried about stalkers to teenagers fending off cyberbullies – will be able to upload a photo to a decentralized service that AI engines will use to refuse certain prompts. All of these filtering systems will be powered by AI.
The Emergence of AI App Stores
Expect to see multiple AI app stores spring up, which will simultaneously pursue both users and developers. OpenAI rushed an announcement of a GPT store, likely angering their “hey don’t kill humanity” governance board, because Altman knew he had to move first. A billion customers will be buying apps from a million developers offering specialized chatbots, and everyone wants a taste of that yummy 30% vigorish. The app store is an innovation accelerator, so at some point, some 20 year old kid will write a bot overnight… that makes $1 million in a single day. (Remember, the top 200 apps on the iOS app store, earn around $82,500 a day, so this is achievable.) When this happens, the next global gold rush begins. Again, Apple will sit back and wait to see how to best enter and capture the market, and you can be sure they won’t sit this one out because they already have 1.4 billion users and want ensure they keep getting their vig too.
2024 will be the year that AI-driven Layoffs Begin
Right now, everyone is in wait and see mode, letting the pioneers take a few arrows in the back. What kind of arrows? When Suumit Shah, the CEO of India-based eCommerce startup Duukan, gleefully bragged on X/Twitter about laying off 90% of his support staff by transitioning to ChatGPT, there was instant backlash on social media. It is possible that a massive global grass roots boycott campaign will emerge to punish any large company who is a first mover into AI layoffs. But after those pioneers perform their duty as cannon fodder, every company in the world will start figuring out how to lay employees off, in a 21st century corporate version of the Hunger Games. A recent report conducted by ResumeBuilder surveyed 750 business leaders entrenched in AI technology. Alarmingly, 44% forecasted layoffs in 2024 due to AI efficiencies… and that’s just the first wave.
The Rise of Scalable AI Skills Training
What’s more research from the University of Pennsylvania warns that nearly two-thirds of jobs in the U.S. and Europe face exposure to AI automation. The thing is this: it isn’t a robot that’s going to take your job, it’s a human who has AI skills that will replace 3-5 others who don’t. So everyone is going to want to learn some AI skills fast. The problem is that developing meaningful AI skills is a cognitive challenge of significant magnitude, equivalent to mastering a new language. It is simply not possible to gain AI literacy by taking a "seven day intensive," or watching a bunch of YouTube videos. It's going to require a few months of serious effort, and the truth is that nobody can do your mental pushups for you. What’s more, this training needs to be scalable to hundreds of millions of people.
The coolest business card will belong to the Chief AI Officer
This is going to be the hot new role at every company, and a lot of senior executives are going to jockey to get that role. The problem is that this person needs to know only know AI at an intuitive level, but the security, compliance, and governance implications of AI. Business schools will soon offer executive training programs to help. Wharton has spun one up already. You can even get certified as a CAIO at www.chiefaiofficer.com. That brings us to the issue of AI governance... OpenAI has proven that this is very hard to do. What does that CAIO actually do to ensure their company’s little AI bot doesn’t grow up to become Skynet? You can start to figure this out by reading: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-tao-of-innovation/202312/how-to-fix-openai
Is the Metaverse dead yet?
The answer is no, not yet. But it’s an industry that’s pivoting so you never know. 2024 will likely be the year that mixed reality emerges as the primary focus over virtual reality for this industry. Apple's Vision Pro may be successful enough to revive interest in this sector, and it’ll do this by not only mixing VR with physical reality, but throwing in some killer AI too. Many of the first units, costing $3,700, will be sold to developers trying to find the killer app, and Apple will help in this process. Will the killer app be education? Games? Business intelligence?
Here are two possible applications: First, AR advertising could eventually replace physical billboards with targetable advertising. An ancillary app could be a travel guide right? Meta’s Raybans that will have AI assistants that speak with you about the world you’re seeing, so they could be AI powered tourguides. So why not offer discount coupons as you walk around Paris or Hong Kong or Bangkok? Too many ads? Then let your agent help filter to the offers you really want, or earn you money just walking around and letting ads in. Eventually, this functionality spill into non-AR life with direct offers and web ads. Second, AR may provide a negotiator’s edge in business meetings with high quality business intelligence. Imagine meeting a potential vendor, and while you listen to their pitch, your AI executive admin listens as well, and vets everything they’re saying. This way, you can be optimally prepared for the negotiation that is about to start once the dog and pony show is over. So they offer a point off in origination fees, in exchange for a different kind of variable rate financing? What is the financial impact of this? Your agent listens and computes for you with graphs in your glasses. Or you can let your AI’s battle it out for you, based on the countours of your efficient frontier curve. Real time business intelligence when it counts.
Now let’s predict the unpredictable!
What’s really happening is that AI is a genie that’s being released from its bottle. It’s incredibly powerful, but you cannot predict what it’s going to do in the long run. We are entering an era replete with unintended consequences.
For example, Google’s DeepMind AI was recently tasked with solving an unsolvable math problem. Not only did the AI solve the well-known but impossible mathematical task involving matrix multiplication, but it also produced a formula which will make future problem solving efforts possible — something human mathematicians were never able to do. The researchers working on the project know that the solution was not included in training data, so the AI must have somehow worked everything out on its own, thinking its way through that impossible problem. That’s the kind of thing we’ll see more of… unintended consequences, both positive and negative.
So let’s cop a squat, and come up with crazier predictions, that will likely prove spectacularly wrong, but might, in this process of expanding our thinking, help us to achieve a state of superthinking? Here are a couple of possibilities to riff on…
What about crypto?
If you have any crypto, you might wondering… will Bitcoin finally head to the moon in 2024? Will an ETF finally be approved? Or is BTC perpetually stuck in a trading zone? Or will China and the US succeed in killing it off? The answer is obviously that Bitcoin will continue to go up and down, moving money from greedy newbies into the wallets of sophisticated crypto traders. What’s more interesting is to consider weak signals about unintended consequences.
There was an interesting development from the BRICS group of emerging economies (comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) which invited the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia to join their collective. If you consider the impact of China’s OBOR (One Belt, One Road) vision… this could have a major impact on US dollar as the global reserve currency. Remember, whoever controls the global reserve currency controls the world, because that country essentially gets a trillion dollar interest free loan for its troubles.
The technological wildcard in all of this is the launch of the digital yuan. OBOR will account for maybe a third of global GDP, so a war over digital currency is brewing. This is why every dominant nation in the world wants to kill Bitcoin, they see an unstoppable evolution of money from coin to paper to electrons… and wonder if they might be part of a basket of currencies that emerges as the replacement for the almighty US dollar.
Will my NFT ever be worth anything again?
In 2021, NFTs were the digital darlings, soaring like rockets destined for the moon. But 2022 brought a brutal reality check, with valuations plummeting faster than a skydiver without a parachute. So, are NFTs destined for the digital dustbin, or can they rise from the ashes like a beautiful phoenix? The World Cup NFT case holds some clues. While some saw it as a desperate cash grab, it also highlighted the potential for NFTs to enhance fan experiences. Imagine owning a dynamic NFT that morphs with your team's progress, granting exclusive voting rights on match tactics or access to personalized training footage.
The takeaway is that the key to NFT resurgence lies in moving beyond the speculative frenzy and focusing on genuine utility. You need to start thinking about stuff like fractional ownership of real-world assets, like co-owning a Picasso through an NFT, splitting the value and appreciation amongst a community. This democratizes access to high-value assets, fostering a sense of shared ownership and engagement. You need to think gamified experiences and tokenized loyalty programs. The future of the NFT depends on creating a deeper connection with customers, fostering brand loyalty and engagement. NFTs can rise again, not as overpriced JPEGs, but as keys to a more interactive, engaging, and democratized future.
Bingo predictions!
Here’s a smattering of other “way out there” predictions. Please comment with your own predictions!
AI-powered "dreamcatchers" for bedtime. It’s possible that someone will launch a wearable tech that harnesses brainwaves during sleep, analyzing our image patterns, and promoting lucid dreaming. At some point, someone might come up with a way to meet a loved one in a shared dreamscape, or tap directly into the subconscious for enhanced creativity and problem-solving.
Biohacking with home CRISPR kits. AI was able to help develop new antibiotics this year which may be able to better treat infections, a sure sign that more medical breakthroughs could be just around the corner. It is likely that DIY biohacking kits will go mainstream, allowing hobbyists to design and build custom microorganisms with specific functions and new kinds of drugs. From brewing personalized probiotics to engineering bacteria for new kinds of wine, the potential for citizen science and decentralized biomanufacturing could emerge. Of course, regulatory challenges will emerge, with the goal of preventing a bioterrorist from adding human DNA to ophiocordyceps unilateralis to start a zombie apocalypse.
Talking dogs and cats. It is possible that some enterprising developer will create a collar for your pet that uses AI to analyze behavioral patterns, and provides Spot and Kitty human vocalization. Imagine your dog "texting" you about needing to go for a walk or your cat complaining to you about the empty kibble bowl. Yeah, this one is gonna happen.
AR tattoos. It’s possible that people in the future can buy a virtual tattoo, viewable to anyone who has AR glasses. Basically, Snapchat filters in mixed reality. Plus, retail establishments will get geofilters for anyone walking by.
Empathy implants. There sure are a lot of programmers with Asperger's syndrome. I’m sure one of them will eventually try to hack their way out of it by building an AI device, or maybe a neural implant someday, that reads and amplifies emotional signals, allowing them to experience the feelings of others. Or maybe just a real-time AI love coach embedded into a watch and airpods, that tries to help its user maintain intimacy and resolve conflicts. This could promote understanding and compassion, but it also sounds like the premise for a very funny romantic comedy movie to me.
These predictions push the boundaries of what we currently think possible and blure line between science fiction and reality, so take them with a grain of salt… and let them serve as a way to prime the pump of your creativity. You never know, 2024 might just surprise us with unexpected twists.
It's a beautiful life…
Let’s end this article on a positive note. Just as the moral arc of the universe is long and bends towards justice… there is arc of technology toward a better tomorrow. Here are some real developments that should give us hope for the future…
The first commercial carbon capture plant recently opened in the US.
Thailand recently legalized same-sex marriage.
Artemis 2, a manned NASA mission that includes humans, including the first woman and first African-American, will orbit the Moon for the first time since 1972.
Jeff Bezo’s Blue Origin is planning a launch with an all-woman crew early in the new year
Dream Chaser, the next-generation Space Shuttle, is expected to enter service in 2024 with a visit to the International Space Station.
Paris will host the summer Olympic Games, with a spectacular opening ceremony down the Seine river.
Canada has declared an end to sales of gas-powered cars by 2035.
We should soon see widespread installation of new airport scanning technology that means you will be able to carry up to two litres of liquid through security. Say goodbye also to those clear plastic bags and taking your laptop out for inspection!
If you love movies, Ghostbusters, Planet of the Apes and the Alien series will all return, as well as the second instalment of the Dune science fiction trilogy and Ridley Scott’s Gladiator 2. Are you not entertained?
Hey, all of this is good news!
Finally, the year 2024 also means we are almost at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century! The early 2020s are unlikely to be remembered as a golden age of the Internet, smartphones, AI and more. And when quantum computing matures in the second quarter of this century, expect another wild ride to 2050!